Restraint (Not Reaction) Can Be The Clearest Expression of Discipline
“Don’t just do something — sit there.” – Sylvia Boorstein
One of the hardest things in investing is doing nothing — not out of neglect, but on purpose.
At Spartan Planning Group, we believe in acting when conditions warrant it — and holding firm when they don’t. That’s the nature of a rules-based process: trade when the data says to, and stay put when it doesn’t.
This is one of those times. With both market activity and portfolio adjustments remaining minimal, our strategies haven’t needed to shift. And that’s not a sign of weakness — it’s a sign that our positioning is aligned with the current environment.
In this month’s Note, we reflect on the value of staying still when the system calls for it — and why restraint, not reaction, is often the clearest expression of discipline.
But first, here’s a summary of what transpired in the markets in July.
Disclaimer: This note is for general update purposes related to the general strategy and approach of Spartan Planning portfolios. Every client’s situation including Risk Profile, Time Horizon, Contributions, and Distributions is different from other clients. Your exposure to any given asset class will depend on your goals, risk profile, and how tactical or static your risk profile calls for. Adjustments can vary across strategies depending on each strategy’s objectives. What’s illustrated above most clearly reflects allocation adjustments for the Growth Strategy. If there have been changes to your risk profile and/or goals or if you wish to discuss them in more depth, please contact your advisor.
Asset-Level Overview
Equities & Real Estate
For the second consecutive month, U.S. equities have enjoyed low volatility uptrends, extending the benchmark index to new all-time highs after June’s strong close. As expected, trends across all timeframes remain positive, and as a result, our portfolios are nearly fully invested. Moreover, U.S. equities continue to hold exposure previously passed on due to weakness in other quasi-equity segments, such as real estate securities.
After a brief lull, international stocks picked up steam in July, also extending their entrenched uptrends. Like U.S. equities, our portfolios remain near their baseline allocations abroad, with a tilt toward developed markets. While international equities still lead in terms of 2025 performance, the outperformance gap between the group and U.S. stocks has closed slightly over the last 60 days.
Among the equity and quasi-equity allocations, real estate remains weakest. Trends are slowly heading toward a positive direction, but the asset class overall remains in a tight range that is well below all-time highs last seen in late 2021.
Fixed Income & Alternatives
At a high level, fixed income performance remains locked in the same pattern. Short-term up to intermediate-term bonds continue to slowly churn mostly higher, while long-term bonds remain weak. This is generally the case whether one is looking at U.S. fixed income or abroad. The mixed results lead to a varied portfolio, with material exposure to the short-duration side of things and almost no exposure on the long end.
Within the multi-asset trend alternatives bucket, short-term fixed income futures and other related instruments remain the most significant in terms of allocation. Longer-duration bonds continue to be primarily held in short positions. Commodities, such as gold and cocoa, also make up noteworthy positions. Meanwhile, the continued strength in stocks globally has caused net long exposure to increase there as well. The U.S. Dollar’s steady decline has caused this segment to increase allocations to foreign-denominated currencies.
3 Potential Catalysts for Trend Changes
Fed Funds: The Federal Reserve held rates steady for a fifth straight meeting. However, it faced unusual dissents from two officials who voted for an immediate cut. The decision comes after a period of intense political pressure coming from the White House and placed on Chair Jerome Powell to lower rates. Officials maintained their benchmark policy rate in a 4.25% to 4.50% range. Important considerations in the decision were how importers, retailers, and consumers divvy up the costs of higher duties on imports. Powell said the Fed wants to ensure any one-time increases in prices do not lead to persistent inflation. The Fed’s caution is fueled by mixed economic reports: Q2 gross domestic product was higher than expected at 3%, and a measure of private business and consumer demand recently decelerated to 1.2% from 1.9%. The Federal Reserve meets again in September, and the next rate decision could be straightforward if data breaks decisively in either direction. Sticky inflation readings combined with solid growth would make it easier to defer rate cuts, but clear economic deterioration would justify cutting the base rate.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: U.S. initial jobless claims declined, extending a period where layoffs have remained constrained. During the spring of 2025, there was a rise in initial-claims filings, but that has reversed course during the past several weeks. The new data is calming concerns about the labor market being weakened. However, evidence from recent monthly job reports shows hiring has slowed. Given the uncertain path forward due to trade policy swings, many companies are postponing major decisions about hiring and investment.
No Home Sales: Home prices rose to a new high in June. With the critical spring sales season fizzling, it is an indication that a housing-market recovery is unlikely this year. June sales fell to a nine-month low. The combination of record prices and mortgage rates above 6.5% has made home purchases unaffordable for many buyers. The national median existing-home price in June rose to $435,300, setting a record going back to 1999. Additionally, more than one in four listings on Zillow saw a price cut in June, which is the highest proportion for any June since at least 2018.
Sourcing for this section: The Wall Street Journal, “Fed Holds Rates Steady, but Two Officials Back a Cut,” 7/30/2025; The Wall Street Journal, “Fewer U.S. Jobless Claims Were Filed Last Week,” 7/24/2025; and The Wall Street Journal, “Home Prices Hit Record High in June, Dragging Down Sales,” 7/23/2025
Stability Impacts Returns, Behavior & Taxes
“Muddy water is best cleared by leaving it alone.” – Allan Watts
Tactical strategies are often heralded for their emphasis on risk management and the ability to make adjustments before or during market shifts. In that sense, it is the times of change that set us apart from nontactical managers.
With that said — and this might surprise — it is actually a lack of change that we prefer. This is especially relevant now, as the calendar flips from July to August and both market activity and portfolio adjustments remain minimal.
Why? Because our systems hunt for trends — but once those trends are established, the best results often come when portfolios don’t need to be reallocated.
There are two facets to this phenomenon:
- Low volatility is highly correlated with positive performance. When markets are quiet, particularly in equities, returns tend to be stronger.
- Trend following can be designed to tilt more toward stronger assets. When those trends persist, the resulting positioning can generate alpha relative to passive benchmarks.
A great example is 2024: Stable uptrends not only contributed to strong performance, but also enabled portfolios to overweight areas like technology and growth stocks — positioning that generally led to outperformance.
Now, someone might ask: If the best performance occurs when portfolios don’t change, why not just use a passive or strategic allocation approach?
Because when markets do fall, losing less through tactical positioning can mean winning more over time.
An often-overlooked principle illustrates this: Not all declines are created equal when it comes to recovery. A 10% decline requires a little more than a 10% gain to return to breakeven. But a 50% decline? That requires a 100% return to recover, not to mention the emotional toll it takes on investors.
This is why stability matters — and not just for returns:
- Behavior: Most investors are suspicious of too much activity. Tactics, when misunderstood, can look like tinkering.
- Taxes: More frequent trading (especially of winners) increases the chance of short-term gains, which can erode after-tax returns even when pre-tax profits are strong.
At Spartan Planning Group, our strategies prioritize durability over short-term flash, because most client goals aren’t measured in weeks or months — but in years and decades.
Disclaimer: this note is for general update purposes related to the strategy and approach of Spartan Planning portfolios. Every client’s situation including Risk Profile, Time Horizon, Contributions, and Distributions is different from other clients. Your particular exposure to any given asset class will depend on your goals, risk profile, and how tactical or passive your risk profile calls for. If there have been changes to your risk profile and/or goals or if you wish to discuss them in more depth please contact your advisor. This email and the data herein is not a solicitation to invest in any investment product nor is it intended to provide investment advice. It is intended for information purposes only and should be used by investment professionals and investors who are knowledgeable of the risks involved. No representation is made that any investment will or is likely to achieve results comparable to those shown or will make any profit at all or will be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. While every effort has been made to provide data from sources considered to be reliable, no guarantee of accuracy is given. Historical data are presented for informational purposes only. Investment programs described herein contain significant risks. A secondary market may not exist or develop for some investments portrayed. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investment decisions should be made based on the investors specific financial needs and objectives, goals, time horizon, tax liability, risk tolerance and other relevant factors. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Investors should consider the underlying funds’ investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. The Advisor’s ADV, which contains this and other important information, should be read carefully before investing. ETFs trade like stocks and may trade for less than their net asset value. Spartan Planning Group, LLC (“Spartan” or the “Advisor”) is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the Adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Spartan’s risk-management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but should not be confused with and does not imply low risk or the ability to control risk. There are risks associated with any investment approach, and Spartan strategies have their own set of risks to be aware of. First, there are the risks associated with the long-term strategic holdings for each of the strategies. The more aggressive the Spartan strategy selected, the more likely the strategy will contain larger weights in riskier asset classes, such as equities. Second, there are distinct risks associated with Spartan Strategies’ shorter-term tactical allocations, which can result in more concentration towards a certain asset class or classes. This introduces the risk that Spartan could be on the wrong side of a tactical overweight, thus resulting in a drag on overall performance or loss of principal. International investments may involve additional risks, which could include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, political instability, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.