When Sentiment is Screaming, Discipline is a Differentiator
“The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak.” – Hans Hofmann
The past few years have shown how quickly market regimes can shift — from a long stretch of falling rates, to the rapid tightening cycle, and the adjustments we’re seeing today.
These transitions don’t reward prediction; they reward process. When conditions change this quickly, discipline becomes the differentiator. A clear, systematic investing approach keeps decisions grounded in data instead of sentiment, and that matters most when the environment is moving faster than investor intuition can keep up.
Our role isn’t to guess what comes next. It’s to stay aligned with the trends that actually emerge and adapt as those trends evolve. That’s what we believe has the power to keep portfolios steady when cash feels comfortable, and what allows them to participate when other assets begin to strengthen.
Discipline — not timing — is what turns market transitions from a source of anxiety into an opportunity.
This month’s Note looks at how the changing rate landscape influenced T-bills and why a rules-based process helps investors stay aligned with what markets are doing, not what they’re supposed to do.
But first, here’s a summary of what transpired in the markets in November.
Disclaimer: This note is for general update purposes related to the general strategy and approach of Spartan Planning portfolios. Every client’s situation including Risk Profile, Time Horizon, Contributions, and Distributions is different from other clients. Your exposure to any given asset class will depend on your goals, risk profile, and how tactical or static your risk profile calls for. Adjustments can vary across strategies depending on each strategy’s objectives. What’s illustrated above most clearly reflects allocation adjustments for the Growth Strategy. If there have been changes to your risk profile and/or goals or if you wish to discuss them in more depth, please contact your advisor.
Asset-Level Overview
Equities & Real Estate
U.S. stocks finished November slightly higher after rallying with five consecutive up days in the S&P 500. The end of the longest U.S. government shutdown on record brought a sigh of relief to many, though it did not lead to another new all-time high in the index. Despite the tempered gains, trends remain positive, and as a result our portfolios remain fully allocated while also carrying exposure from weaker real estate securities.
Just like their U.S. counterparts, international equities retraced slightly but failed to seriously challenge their uptrend status. For now trends remain firmly positive as we head into December. The relationship between foreign developed and emerging markets is relatively balanced in terms of strength so both will be at their baseline allocation in our portfolios.
Real estate securities remain mixed, with some indexes in slight uptrends and others in full downtrends. The cloudy picture in terms of trend and the distinct weakness relative to other equity-like assets means that our portfolios will continue to hold a minimal position. Until conditions improve or monetary policy becomes more accommodating, this is unlikely to change.
Fixed Income & Alternatives
U.S. fixed income trends have strengthened in intermediate- and longer-duration Treasuries. These trends remain solid and continue to look stronger than the short-duration segments that dominated much of the post-COVID period. The added diversification and resumption of persistent uptrends have been a welcome development for investors, including our firm. The presence of positive trends means an overweight allocation for our portfolios.
For international bonds, they declined further in November, enough to produce downtrends. As a result, exposure will be vacated and re-allocated to stronger U.S. Treasuries.
Within the multi-asset trend alternatives bucket, fixed income duration continues to increase as intermediate-term bonds perform better. Exposure to shorter-term bonds is decreasing as yields fall. Net long exposure in commodities has grown as existing positions strengthened, with the largest long now concentrated in the metals segment. The U.S. Dollar’s slight rebound has caused international currency exposure to decrease; however, the portfolio is still net short the U.S. currency.
Sourcing for this section: Barchart.com, S&P 500 Index ($SPX), 11/1/2025 to 11/28/2025
3 Potential Catalysts for Trend Changes
Purchasing Slow Down: Consumers, who are increasingly stretched, are drawing a line on what they will pay for a new vehicle, according to dealers, analysts, and industry data. Signs of strain are evident: cars are sitting longer on dealer lots, dealers are offering additional discounts, lower-income borrowers are defaulting on car loans, and total spending on vehicle purchases is down. Auto tariffs, persistent inflation, and a tighter job market are driving more Americans to reconsider major purchases. For example, within housing, October’s selling rate was the slowest in more than a year, and November results — soon to be announced — are projected to be lower, with no quick rebound expected.
Delayed Data: Government statistical agencies are playing catch-up after the shutdown ran from Oct. 1 to mid-November, delaying many reports economists and policymakers rely on to measure the health of the economy. September inflation data will be almost three months old when the Fed meets Dec. 9-10, but that will be the most recent official inflation data available as they weigh how to steer interest rates. The official Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report is scheduled for Friday, Dec. 5. Some economic data, such as last month’s unemployment rate and consumer-inflation numbers, can’t be compiled retroactively because they rely on contemporaneous surveys, according to the Labor Department. October job-creation stats are due in December, but not until after the Federal Reserve meets. The Commerce Department will publish its initial estimate of third-quarter GDP on Dec. 23, nearly two months after a first look at the data was initially scheduled.
Next Cut? According to a Federal Reserve report, the job market continues to struggle even as cost and price pressures persist. The findings underscore the competing risks central bank officials will have to weigh at their next meeting. The Fed is split on what to do at its Dec. 9-10 meeting, with some officials preferring a third-straight quarter-point rate cut due to the slowing labor market and others wanting to hold rates steady because of inflation. Markets are putting an 85% probability on a cut, according to CME Group. The same Federal Reserve report found that wealthier Americans continued to drive solid sales at higher-end retailers, but otherwise consumer spending is under pressure. Many companies say shoppers are less willing to accept higher prices now as household budgets tighten.
Sourcing for this section: The Wall Street Journal, “U.S. Home Prices Slow Further Amid Affordability Concerns,” 11/25/2025 and The Wall Street Journal, “Five Key Takeaways From the Fed’s Economic Survey,” 11/26/2025
Trend Following Case Study: Treasury Bills
“When you can’t change the direction of the wind — adjust your sails.” – H. Jackson Brown Jr.
Approximately two years ago, U.S. Treasury bills and money market funds were enjoying a renaissance. Yields surpassed 5 percent and the risk-free rate of return was at a level not seen in almost two decades. The rebound in yield was enough to have investors looking away from other traditional assets, like stocks and bonds, in favor of these relatively high yielding but stable instruments. Never mind that inflation was eroding almost all of this higher yield…the idea of a riskless 5%+ was alluring.
Now, as yields are back below 4% and potentially set to fall further, investors must ask themselves: is this enough to continue being a suitable substitute for other assets. If so, for how long? If not, is now the time for bonds? Stocks?
This conundrum represents much of the reason Spartan Planning Group strategies still exist and continue to offer a solution for investors asking these questions.
Recall the recent journey through the interest rate landscape:
- Like most strategies utilizing fixed income, our portfolios enjoyed the mostly falling rate environment until 2021, when the Fed’s primary concern shifted from stimulating growth to combating inflation.
- Once the central bank began raising rates, bond prices in any interest-sensitive segment fell significantly, producing bear market drawdowns typically only seen in equities and other higher-volatility assets. Our systematic investing process picked up on this change in direction quickly, causing our portfolios to reduce exposure to higher-duration instruments and allocate to lower-duration assets, like T-bills, which benefited from this new direction by the Fed. In fact, for large stretches of late 2021 through 2023, T-bills were our largest position.
- As higher-expected-return assets recovered, we shifted allocations toward them and lowered exposure to T-bills.
The problem this interest rate journey creates for investors who don’t use a trend-following system to dynamically make portfolio updates is that:
- While T-bills provided a decent return, they have significantly lagged other assets
- Now, with yields back down, investors who want to wade back into equity and bond waters risk doing so at all-time and local highs
Without a plan this can represent a sticky situation.
By contrast, our trend-following systems shifted into T-bills when higher-duration bonds were in downtrends, and then rotated back into risk assets as those trends turned positive. This helped us avoid the same opportunity cost.
Fortunately, it’s never too late to utilize a good investing system to venture back into higher-volatility markets, in our view. If investors work with us to develop a solid plan, then partnering with Spartan Planning Group means that even if this turns out to be relatively poor timing to move on from T-bills in favor of stocks and bonds, our investing systems will adjust accordingly and wait for the next opportunity. If the good times keep rolling as we enter 2026, then investors should be happy they took the incremental risk.
With gratitude on everyone’s mind this time of year, we’re reminded of how thankful we are for our systematic investing process. Markets bring uncertainty every day, and a defined plan is what allows us to move through it with confidence. It isn’t perfect — no approach is — but it has consistently helped us navigate whatever comes next for us and our clients.
As we close out this update, we want to thank you again for your partnership and wish you and your families a great holiday season and a strong finish to 2025.
Disclaimer: this note is for general update purposes related to the strategy and approach of Spartan Planning portfolios. Every client’s situation including Risk Profile, Time Horizon, Contributions, and Distributions is different from other clients. Your particular exposure to any given asset class will depend on your goals, risk profile, and how tactical or passive your risk profile calls for. If there have been changes to your risk profile and/or goals or if you wish to discuss them in more depth please contact your advisor. This email and the data herein is not a solicitation to invest in any investment product nor is it intended to provide investment advice. It is intended for information purposes only and should be used by investment professionals and investors who are knowledgeable of the risks involved. No representation is made that any investment will or is likely to achieve results comparable to those shown or will make any profit at all or will be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. While every effort has been made to provide data from sources considered to be reliable, no guarantee of accuracy is given. Historical data are presented for informational purposes only. Investment programs described herein contain significant risks. A secondary market may not exist or develop for some investments portrayed. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investment decisions should be made based on the investors specific financial needs and objectives, goals, time horizon, tax liability, risk tolerance and other relevant factors. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Investors should consider the underlying funds’ investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. The Advisor’s ADV, which contains this and other important information, should be read carefully before investing. ETFs trade like stocks and may trade for less than their net asset value. Spartan Planning Group, LLC (“Spartan” or the “Advisor”) is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the Adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Spartan’s risk-management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but should not be confused with and does not imply low risk or the ability to control risk. There are risks associated with any investment approach, and Spartan strategies have their own set of risks to be aware of. First, there are the risks associated with the long-term strategic holdings for each of the strategies. The more aggressive the Spartan strategy selected, the more likely the strategy will contain larger weights in riskier asset classes, such as equities. Second, there are distinct risks associated with Spartan Strategies’ shorter-term tactical allocations, which can result in more concentration towards a certain asset class or classes. This introduces the risk that Spartan could be on the wrong side of a tactical overweight, thus resulting in a drag on overall performance or loss of principal. International investments may involve additional risks, which could include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, political instability, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.