These Are Not Synonyms: Information & Signal
“The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know.”
– Nassim Taleb
Most investors today do not suffer from a lack of information. They suffer from too much of it.
Headlines arrive instantly. Opinions multiply by the minute. Every economic release, policy debate, and geopolitical development gets dissected in real time across an expanding number of channels.
The question is no longer where to find market commentary but which commentary or opinion, if any, deserves a response.
The month of May was a useful illustration. Markets navigated inflation concerns, shifting rate expectations, geopolitical tension, fiscal debates, and ongoing questions about artificial intelligence and concentration risk. Underlying trends largely persisted through the noise. The gap between what headlines suggested and what markets actually did was notable, though not unusual.
This month’s Note explores the distinction between information and signal, why short-term activity often feels more important than it is, and how a systematic investing process helps separate temporary noise from lasting change.
But first, here’s a summary of what transpired in the markets in May.
Disclaimer: This note is for general update purposes related to the general strategy and approach of Spartan Planning portfolios. Every client’s situation including Risk Profile, Time Horizon, Contributions, and Distributions is different from other clients. Your exposure to any given asset class will depend on your goals, risk profile, and how tactical or static your risk profile calls for. Adjustments can vary across strategies depending on each strategy’s objectives. What’s illustrated above most clearly reflects allocation adjustments for the Growth Strategy. If there have been changes to your risk profile and/or goals or if you wish to discuss them in more depth, please contact your advisor.
Asset-Level Overview
Equities & Real Estate
Uncertainty in the Middle East, energy prices, and inflation remain the dominant factors impacting equity markets. Despite these risks, the S&P 500 moved higher in May, expanding on April’s rally and making new all-time highs once again. The result is that trends remain positive and our portfolios will continue to be overweight.
International equities were more mixed in May, with developed markets joining U.S. markets moving higher and emerging markets trailing the other two. This divergence has allowed U.S. performance to close the gap year-to-date, but international equities continue to outperform. Trends remain solidly positive, which will allow our portfolios to maintain their current allocations.
Real estate security returns were on the muted side in May, with performance currently sitting slightly positive for the month. With renewed inflation concerns pushing lending rates higher, this segment is facing a significant headwind. A new Federal Reserve Chair is yet another factor contributing to uncertainty for this asset class.
Fixed Income & Alternatives
Speaking of asset classes affected by inflation and monetary policy uncertainty, fixed income instruments continued to mostly struggle in May. Pressure on rates to rise has driven bond prices lower across all durations. The result is that our portfolios will remain at their minimum allocations in favor of money market instruments.
Within the alternatives allocation very little change has occurred as we transition to June. Sustained equity trends will keep the equity allocation high while interest rate support described above will keep major short positions in place for fixed income instruments. Elevated oil prices will once again hold the commodity allocation net long while the net long to international currencies will be virtually unchanged.
Sourcing in this section: fortune.com, “S&P 500 sets all-time high, welcomes another company to $1 trillion market cap club,” 5/27/2026
3 Potential Catalysts for Trend Changes
Inflation Rising: The Fed’s preferred gauge of monthly price increases grew more slowly in April. However, it remained higher than the Fed’s ideal target. The personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% in April versus the previous month, and it rose 0.7% in March. During the past year, the index increased 3.8%, which is higher than the Fed’s 2% target. The core 12-month PCE inflation rate is 3.3%. Compared to a year ago, energy prices rose 18%, gasoline 28%, fuel oil 54%, and airfare prices 21%. The latest report means that the rate cuts the market expected at the start of the year are no longer a 2026 story. Four months ago, the Federal Reserve was considering whether to keep cutting interest rates to help a shaky labor market. Now, with inflation data being so critical, the Fed’s policy debate has shifted from when to cut rates to when to signal that a rate hike is as likely as a rate cut.
Consumer Confusion: Consumers are the cornerstone of the American economy. So far, their spending has held up well in 2026 despite higher prices and slow labor-market hiring. For example, retail sales grew by 0.5% in April. Yet, in economic surveys, Americans report one of the grimmest moods on record. On the other hand, the stock market doesn’t seem to be reflecting a sour outlook. Last week, the S&P 500 logged its eighth-consecutive week higher.
Ongoing Housing Squeeze: U.S. home-price growth slowed slightly in March, during a time when higher mortgage rates intensified the affordability squeeze for home buyers. A measure of home prices across the country, S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, increased 0.7% in the 12 months through March versus a 0.8% rise in February. Mortgage rates also recently hit the highest level since August (6.51% for a 30-year fixed). Mortgage rates usually loosely track 10-year Treasury yields, which have risen following high inflation data. The combination of prices, rates, and other factors spells bad news for home shoppers and coincides with what is usually the busiest time of year for home sales. A fourth-straight slow year for the housing market will also be a challenge for industries that rely on home sales, such as real-estate brokerages, mortgage lenders, home builders, and furniture manufacturers.
Sourcing for this section: The Wall Street Journal, “Iran War Keeps Fed’s Inflation Gauge Above Inflation Target,” 5/28/2026; The Wall Street Journal, “Inflation Soared to 3.8% in April, Driven by Gasoline Prices,” 5/12/2026; The Wall Street Journal, “Retailers’ Sales Growth Cooled Last Month,” 5/14/2026; finance.yahoo.com, “S&P 500 eyes 8th straight weekly gain amid Iran deal hopes,” 5/22/206; The Wall Street Journal, “U.S. Home Price Growth Slowed in March,” 5/26/2026; and The Wall Street Journal, “Mortgage Rates Hit a Nine-Month High in Blow to Prime Buying Season,” 5/21/2026
Information is Flowing Faster, But Trends Usually Are Not
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”
– Benjamin Graham
If you followed financial headlines during May, you would be forgiven for thinking markets had every reason to struggle. Investors navigated persistent inflation concerns, shifting expectations around interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal debates, questions surrounding global growth, and the constant drumbeat of election-related noise around the world. On top of that, developments in artificial intelligence continued creating excitement in some corners of the market while simultaneously raising concerns about concentration risk and valuations in others.
The modern investor has access to more information than at any point in history. News alerts arrive around-the-clock. Market commentary appears continuously. Social media amplifies every opinion, prediction, and short-term market move. Information moves faster than ever before. The interesting thing is that trends generally do not.
One of the core principles behind systematic trend following is recognizing that markets often experience temporary volatility (both up and down) without experiencing a meaningful change in direction. A sharp move over several trading sessions may feel important at the moment. A concerning headline may create anxiety. An unexpected economic report may dominate conversations for days. But short-term activity and long-term trend change are not always the same thing.
Investors frequently face a difficult behavioral challenge: separating information from noise. When headlines arrive continuously, it becomes tempting to react continuously. Yet history has repeatedly shown that frequent reactions can create more problems than they solve. As the quote above from legendary investor Benjamin Graham observes: daily sentiment, emotion, and headlines can influence short-term outcomes, but sustained trends tend to reflect larger underlying forces over time.
This distinction matters because successful investing is not simply about gathering information. It is about identifying which information deserves action. Trend following does not attempt to predict inflation readings, forecast central bank decisions, estimate election outcomes, or anticipate geopolitical developments. Those variables matter, but markets often process them long before consensus opinion catches up.
Instead, systematic trend following focuses on a different set of questions:
- What is happening?
- Is it persistent?
- Does portfolio positioning need to adapt?
That discipline becomes especially valuable during environments like today, where information flow can create the illusion that every development requires immediate action. Sometimes trends change quickly. Risk management exists for precisely that reason. But many times, markets demonstrate resilience even while headlines suggest instability. Strong trends can persist longer than investors expect. Weak trends can deteriorate further than forecasts predict.
Our systematic investing process exists to reduce the temptation to confuse motion with direction. Headlines will continue moving faster than trends. They generally always have. The goal is not to ignore information. The goal is to maintain the discipline to distinguish between temporary noise and lasting change. Because over time, successful investing is often less about reacting faster and more about reacting better.
Disclaimer: this note is for general update purposes related to the strategy and approach of Spartan Planning portfolios. Every client’s situation including Risk Profile, Time Horizon, Contributions, and Distributions is different from other clients. Your particular exposure to any given asset class will depend on your goals, risk profile, and how tactical or passive your risk profile calls for. If there have been changes to your risk profile and/or goals or if you wish to discuss them in more depth please contact your advisor. This email and the data herein is not a solicitation to invest in any investment product nor is it intended to provide investment advice. It is intended for information purposes only and should be used by investment professionals and investors who are knowledgeable of the risks involved. No representation is made that any investment will or is likely to achieve results comparable to those shown or will make any profit at all or will be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. While every effort has been made to provide data from sources considered to be reliable, no guarantee of accuracy is given. Historical data are presented for informational purposes only. Investment programs described herein contain significant risks. A secondary market may not exist or develop for some investments portrayed. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investment decisions should be made based on the investors specific financial needs and objectives, goals, time horizon, tax liability, risk tolerance and other relevant factors. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Investors should consider the underlying funds’ investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. The Advisor’s ADV, which contains this and other important information, should be read carefully before investing. ETFs trade like stocks and may trade for less than their net asset value. Spartan Planning Group, LLC (“Spartan” or the “Advisor”) is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the Adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Spartan’s risk-management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but should not be confused with and does not imply low risk or the ability to control risk. There are risks associated with any investment approach, and Spartan strategies have their own set of risks to be aware of. First, there are the risks associated with the long-term strategic holdings for each of the strategies. The more aggressive the Spartan strategy selected, the more likely the strategy will contain larger weights in riskier asset classes, such as equities. Second, there are distinct risks associated with Spartan Strategies’ shorter-term tactical allocations, which can result in more concentration towards a certain asset class or classes. This introduces the risk that Spartan could be on the wrong side of a tactical overweight, thus resulting in a drag on overall performance or loss of principal. International investments may involve additional risks, which could include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, political instability, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.